Business

Economic Cloud Has a Silver Lining

Published

2 years ago

October 9, 2022

Economist Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Professor of Economics at Kennesaw State University, speaking at Tandem Bank 2022 Economic Forum

In the early days of Tandem Bank’s existence, Chairman, CEO and Founder Charles DeWitt pointed out how it differentiates itself from many other banks.

In an interview with Atlanta Business Chronicle, he said there would be an increased focus on technology. Three years later, there is a main bank, but customers are encouraged to do more banking with their cell phones and utilize other technology.

The other difference is in the name. DeWitt said “Tandem” refers to the tandem bicycle, and it means that whether the client is an entrepreneur, a real estate professional or business operator, it will stay alongside them, providing capital or safeguarding their money but always keeping the spotlight on the customer.

In keeping with the philosophy of remaining beside clients, Tandem hosted its first Economic Forum on Thursday, September 22. The event featured Roger Tutterow, professor of economics at Kennesaw State University (KSU). He also serves as director of the Econometric Center, a research center housed in KSU’s Coles College of Business.

Economic insights shared

Tutterow shared his insights on the current economic situation and explained where metro Atlanta, the state of Georgia and the United States stand in global finance. His take was entertaining as well as informative as he covered critically important issues, such as:

Persistently high inflation and rising interest rates,
Labor challenges and supply chain woes,
Downward trending consumer sentiment, and
Likelihood and possible depth of a recession.

“We went through an incredible economic period from July 28, 2009 until February 2020,” said Tutterow. “The economy grew for 128 consecutive months, the longest economic expansion of the post-World War II era. And then the pandemic came. And we went from an economy that was growing at 2¼% to one that started contracting overnight.”

Although that was no surprise, the repercussions and recovery have many confused about whether we’re headed back to prosperity. “Today, the question on many people’s minds is ‘Are we currently in a recession? Or is one the likely outcome in the near term?’” he said.

With that as background, Tutterow showed some fundamental data to help find an answer. He first explained that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine an answer through analysis. On the other hand, it’s not inconceivable that the economy may actually start growing again.

“It may well be several more quarters before we get a final ruling,” Tutterow said.

There’s a misconception that two negative quarters of GDP growth indicate a recession is imminent. The NBER says a period of diminished activity in production, trade, income and employment of sufficient depth and breadth are proof of a recession. So, with payrolls still growing and industrial production still rising, it actually doesn’t appear the economy has been in recession in the first half of 2022.

Although the economy plunged during the pandemic, once things started reopening, consumer confidence came back up, said Tutterow. “And then we got into 2021. And the summer of 2021, fall 2021, confidence started falling.” he said.

Some media sources tend to blame the economic issues on gas prices. “The consumer psyche is overly sensitive to gas prices,” Tutterow said. “Gasoline prices exert more effect upon the perceptions of inflation than the actual percentage of the expenditures.

“Let’s be honest, gas prices matter. …So when the price of gas goes up by $2 per gallon, that’s $2,000 of after-tax, disposable income that goes from you into the gas tank [if you average about 1,000 gallons a year.]”

At the end of the day, the economy isn’t doing so bad, Tutterow stressed. Even though interest rates have climbed a little, buying a house at 7% interest sure beats the 18% average people were paying in 1981. Historically, access to capital is still cheap.

In the early days of Tandem Bank’s existence, Chairman, CEO and Founder Charles DeWitt pointed out how it differentiates itself from many other banks.